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Abracadabra and interest rates

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Last week The Fed briefly rattled stock markets with an unexpected inter-meeting rate cut. A full 75 basis point adjustment. Rumors suggest that a precipitous drop in global stock markets forced the Fed's hand. It has come to pass that the actions of one Jerome Kerviel, a rogue trader in Paris who committed the bank Societe Generale to a 50 billion Euro position, may have unnerved the Fed. In an effort to unwind Jerome's trades Societe Generale triggered widespread investor flight from the markets. By reducing the rate, a mere week before the scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting, did the Fed react to events at Societe Generale ? The Financial Times wrote "The question being asked now by some in the markets is: was the Fed duped into a clumsy and panicked move by the clean up operation for Jerome Kerviel's mammoth losses from the French bank?". If that is the case and with what we know now, this is surely to embarrass Ben Bernanke. In any case, the ...

Annus Horribilis

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2007 has turned out to be a difficult year for anyone involved with subprime mortgage lending and most should be relieved that this Annus Horribilis is coming to a close. Seventy billion dollars in write-downs was announced in the first two weeks of December, all related to so called NINJA loans (No Income, No Job, No Asset). Experts expect more losses before the situation normalizes late into 2008. This week the Federal Reserve Bank plans to auction some USD 40 billion in an effort to lubricate credit markets. Earlier attempts involving several hundred billions of dollars failed to move markets. Some doubt that the puny auction is sufficient to steady a 12.7 trillion dollar industry. It would appear that credit markets have taken on a life of their own, completely outside the Fed's province. Will 2008 be an Annus Mirabilis ? Perhaps not. The current turmoil must play itself out before banks recover from a collective position of distrust.

Mobile VoIP

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There are many pretenders to the VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) throne. Skype is way ahead of the competition and has many a phone company worried sick. With an estimated 70 million users globally, Skype certainly punches above its weight. Users around the world enjoy free computer-to-computer calls over the internet while fixed-line phone companies look on helplessly. However Skype has failed to threaten the mobile telecommunications arena because of the non-standard (usually closed) operating systems embedded in mobile phones. In addition, Skype works best on broadband (high speed) internet connections such as Wi-Fi, a feature found only on the more expensive hand sets. The mobile phone market has largely been spared the onslaught from cheap VoIP calls. Until Fring showed up. What is Fring? This is what it says on the Fring website: Fring ‘s mobile VoIP application enables you to make voice calls, chat and check out who’s online before dialing (real-time presence), no ma...

Exit The Washington Consensus: Enter the Dragon

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Trade between Africa and China has grown exponentially in the last decade breaching USD 40 billion in 2004. Most of this growth is fueled by commodity exports to China including oil and minerals. It helps that the Chinese government throws in the odd gift; a huge football stadium in Tanzania and a USD 150 million office complex for the African Union in Ethiopia are some of the recent signs of the benevolence of the People's Republic of China. Unlike financial aid from the West which is often laden with strings and is increasingly considered intrusive by most African governments, Chinese investments are unconditional. These investments are almost always targeted at infrastructure development. Compared with the seemingly endless workshops, seminars and consultancy services preferred by donors from the West, Chinese help brings meaningful relief to local communities and could be the reason why Chinese engagement is highly sought after in Africa. As a bonus, the Chinese do not tag ...

The end of money

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Investopedia defines money as "A commodity or asset, such as gold, an officially issued currency, coin or paper note, that can be legally exchanged for something equivalent, such as goods or services". Joe Plummer offers a more interesting definition: Fiat money is inherently worthless paper, backed by absolutely nothing, and because so, government must force people to accept it via legal tender laws. The last twelve months has seen the world's favourite fiat money, the United States Dollar, resemble more closely Joe Plummer's description of money. Oil exporters have taken note. Kuwait has quietly removed the dollar peg. It is rumored (and one-year forward contracts support this rumour) that Saudi Arabia is on course to unhinge the Riyal from the dollar hook. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad couldn't agree more with Plummer. "They get our oil and give us a worthless piece of paper... the dollar has no economic value" complained the Iranian leader at th...

Phoney wars

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In the ten months to October 2007, China Mobile added 55 million new subscribers to its mobile phone network. The company hosts 356 million users, over three times the subscription at the closest competitor, China Unicom . Equipment providers, from handset suppliers to switch manufacturers are clamoring for a piece of the action. In a move seen as discriminatory against foreign suppliers, the Chinese government adopted a home grown standard for third generation (3G) mobile systems despite downward pressure from European (Wideband Code Division Multiple Access) and US (CDMA 2000)) lobby groups. Beijing is one of ten test cities for the government sponsored time division synchronous code division multiple access (TD-SCDMA) standard. Excessive royalties to foreign companies and costly litigations arising from Intellectual Property rights violations are citied by Beijing as some of the reasons for pushing the Chinese 3G standard. Others argue that China is simply asserting its positi...

A LAN for every man

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Bluetooth technology is widely used to connect mobile phones with headsets, laptops, cameras, printers and other bluetooth enabled devices. For wireless local area networking Wi-Fi rules, OK? Not quite. Bluetooth may be the answer to small networks for which data transmission speed and coverage area are of no consequence. This technology consumes far less power at much lower cost than Wi-Fi. We set up a bluetooth network of three computers using Class 1 devices in under an hour. Class 1 devices can communicate up to 100m - coverage similar to a typical Wi-Fi installation at a fraction of the cost. Communication across solid walls was a breeze. Although Bluetooth networks are limited to eight devices per cluster (called a piconet), they can be extended by connecting two or more piconets to form a scatternet . Version 3.0 promises transmission speeds of around 480 Mbit/s.